UW Offensive Stats 2014-2020 & Explanation

Topic

Here is a tight look…

The last 5 stats (TD Rate, FEI, S&P+, Beta Rank & Finishing Drives) take into account all games.

For all the other stats I only look at conference games.

I included forced turnovers because that can impact the offense. I couldn’t find a points off TO or points scored by D or ST.

I dont know if the red zone ppg and non red zone ppg are really important. I just threw it in there. Red Zone PPO means points per opportunity. To keep it simple, its 7 for a TD, 3 for a FG. So you want to be as close to 7 as you can be.

I calculated the # of explosive plays based on +10 yard runs and +20 yard passes. +30 yards are any play that is +30 yards.

FD is finishing drives from S&P+. I dont have it for 2014 or 2019. For 2018 I recall it was over 100 for most of the year so I’m putting in 100 with asterisk. TD Rate is part of FEI.

I bolded #s that were the worst in 2019. A few others were 2nd worst.

What do you guys think?

Where will we improve?

How will we do?

Replies

When can we expect a pod. The players are back get some opinions on what your expectations this season. If Jimmy has hope we have a chance because he’s typically very pragmatic.

Very surprised at the drop in 20+ and 30+ yard receptions last year compared to 2018 despite replacing Browning with Eason. The 15 30+ yard receptions was the lowest number in Pete’s entire tenure at UW.

Woof wrote:

Very surprised at the drop in 20+ and 30+ yard receptions last year compared to 2018 despite replacing Browning with Eason. The 15 30+ yard receptions was the lowest number in Pete’s entire tenure at UW.

Quote

Note that +20 yard receptions were stable in 2018 and 2019 compared to 2016. In 2018 our pass game at times was explosive. The real problem was the lack of explosive run plays. That was a huge outlier.

Here is the # of +20 yard run plays 2020-2014. Only 6 +20 yard runs in 9 league games!!

6-12-20-22-16-11

We lacked explosive run plays in 2018 because we didn’t have Gaskin for stretches. We needed Ty Jones to break out to replace Pettis and he didn’t.

2019 it’s obvious. We didn’t play our most talented receivers. Part of it was Eason though. For all his potential he was hot and cold. When he was cold we really sucked and couldn’t do anything against Utah and Colorado.

LiberalArtsDawg wrote:

We lacked explosive run plays in 2018 because we didn’t have Gaskin for stretches. We needed Ty Jones to break out to replace Pettis and he didn’t.

2019 it’s obvious. We didn’t play our most talented receivers. Part of it was Eason though. For all his potential he was hot and cold. When he was cold we really sucked and couldn’t do anything against Utah and Colorado.

Quote

In 2019 we chose to play less talented guys over Puka, Bynum and lesser extent Spiker and even Chinn who made big plays.

Looking at the run stats closely, the issue with the dramatic drop can be explained by basically no production from a #2 back in terms of explosive runs.

Newton & McGrew combined for only 7 10 yard runs and 1 20 yard run (in league play).

During Gaskins time we had Coleman and then Ahmed (in 2018) providing a solid #2 threat.

Losing Ahmed hurts because I think he would have been better and we’d have a strong #2 threat in Davis/McGrew.

Now we need Davis and Newton to pickup the slack for our run game.

Bump