Data Dawg Graph: Offenses Relative to Talent

Topic

I dove into how rostered offensive talent impacts the offensive success of a team in 2019 and got some interesting results.

The R-squared is 28.5% meaning that ultimately a quarter of offensive success can be attributed to how well a team recruits on offense. The other 3/4ths? Coaching, scheme, development, etc.

Knowing that, teams that are above the line are performing above what their talent would dictate. Teams that are WAY above are doing an incredible job. Teams that are under, like the Huskies, are not performing up to the standard.

ELITE teams, like those we are seeing in the CFP, are on the upper tier of both talent and exceeding talent.

I’d also like to point out Notre Dame, whose OC has been rumored but not extremely likely to end up at UW, is extremely average as it relates to this. SMU, not pictured as this only has P5 schools, would be far above the line at roughly the same height as USC but with talent less than Kansas State.

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I’d love to see this graph for defense as well. Look at the fucking Beavs with J Smitty at the helm. I know that there is nowhere to go but up from last year but I have a feeling the difference between next year and this year is going to be more stark than people think.